Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
West Ham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
West Ham 2-3 Fulham
Original prediction
West Ham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.13 | 29.8% | 37.7% | 7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.7% | 27.2% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 43.6% | 35.1% | -8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
West Ham
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
West Ham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
West HamWWDWL
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FulhamLLWLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
West HamFulham
100.0Attack100.0
66.7Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
90.7Power97.0
1.68xG1.36