Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
West Ham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
West Ham 3-0 Derby
Original prediction
West Ham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 68.5% | 52.6% | -15.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.83 | 19.4% | 23.5% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 7.73 | 12.1% | 23.9% | 11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
West Ham
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
West Ham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
West HamWDWLD
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
DerbyWLDLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
West HamDerby
66.7Attack41.7
41.7Defence41.7
41.7Form33.3
51.6Power40.6
1.89xG1.24