Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
West Brom · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
West Brom 1-0 Watford
Original prediction
West Brom
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 50.7% | 46.2% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 26.5% | 26.8% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.09 | 22.9% | 27.1% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
West Brom
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
West Brom has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
West BromDLLWW
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
WatfordLDLDW
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
West BromWatford
66.7Attack33.3
44.4Defence58.3
66.7Form41.7
61.0Power47.4
1.62xG1.09