Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
West Brom · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
West Brom 1-1 Charlton
Original prediction
West Brom
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 55.3% | 39.5% | -15.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 25.3% | 26.6% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.85 | 19.4% | 34.0% | 14.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
West Brom
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
West Brom has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
West BromLLWWW
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
CharltonWLWWW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
West BromCharlton
66.7Attack55.6
44.4Defence77.8
66.7Form100.0
61.0Power83.3
1.31xG1.46