West Bromvs
Birmingham
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/10/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
West Brom · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
West Brom 0-1 Birmingham
Original prediction
West Brom
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.49 | 37.8% | 39.0% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 29.1% | 29.7% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.85 | 33.1% | 31.3% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
West Brom
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
West Brom has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60