Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Watford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Watford 1-1 West Ham
Original prediction
Watford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.19 | 22.5% | 40.1% | 17.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 24.5% | 26.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 53.0% | 33.8% | -19.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.83 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Watford
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Watford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WatfordLDWWL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
West HamWLDWD
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
WatfordWest Ham
50.0Attack50.0
66.7Defence33.3
66.7Form16.7
64.8Power36.5
1.72xG1.06