Watfordvs
Stoke City
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Watford · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Watford 1-2 Stoke City
Original prediction
Watford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 40.2% | 39.3% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 28.1% | 28.4% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 31.6% | 32.4% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Watford
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Watford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WatfordWLLDL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Stoke CityDWWLD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
WatfordStoke City
33.3Attack50.0
61.1Defence44.4
44.4Form38.9
49.3Power44.6
1.32xG1.11