Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Watford · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Watford 2-1 Preston
Original prediction
Watford
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 45.0% | 45.1% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.6% | 27.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.43 | 27.4% | 27.4% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Watford
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Watford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WatfordLLDLD
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
PrestonWLLLL
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
WatfordPreston
26.7Attack33.3
60.0Defence33.3
33.3Form20.0
43.0Power32.5
1.39xG0.93