Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Charlton · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Watford 0-1 Charlton, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Watford 2-0 Charlton
Original prediction
Charlton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 37.7% | 25.9% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.3% | 27.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 34.0% | 46.2% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.2 pts
Projected Score
Watford 0–1 Charlton
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Charlton
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Charlton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WatfordLLLLW
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
CharltonDDLDD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
WatfordCharlton
26.7Attack33.3
36.7Defence56.7
26.7Form46.7
33.1Power48.2
0.71xG1.21