Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Watford · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Watford 0-4 Burnley
Original prediction
Watford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.80 | 33.6% | 40.2% | 6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.5% | 28.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 38.9% | 31.0% | -8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Watford
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Watford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WatfordLLWLL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BurnleyDLDLD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5
WatfordBurnley
29.2Attack37.5
58.3Defence29.2
33.3Form16.7
43.2Power31.1
1.45xG0.89