Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wanderers · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Wanderers 1-0 Progreso, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Wanderers 0-1 Progreso
Original prediction
Wanderers
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 08:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 43.5% | 46.9% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.2% | 28.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 28.3% | 25.1% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Projected Score
Wanderers 1–0 Progreso
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Wanderers
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Wanderers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WanderersLLDWW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ProgresoWDLWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
WanderersProgreso
41.2Attack30.3
53.9Defence52.5
49.0Form32.3
49.5Power41.2
1.29xG0.74