Wanderersvs
Club Nacional
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 9/12/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Club Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wanderers 1-1 Club Nacional
Original prediction
Club Nacional
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.02 | 22.6% | 32.0% | 9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 27.2% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 50.7% | 40.8% | -9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Club Nacional
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Club Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80