Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wanderers · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wanderers 1-1 Cerro
Original prediction
Wanderers
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 43.9% | 38.6% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 30.0% | 30.6% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 26.1% | 30.8% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.02 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Wanderers
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Wanderers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WanderersWLDWL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CerroDLWWL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
WanderersCerro
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.08xG0.92