Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wanderers · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wanderers 1-3 Cerrito
Original prediction
Wanderers
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 48.5% | 38.4% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.7% | 28.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 4.11 | 21.9% | 33.0% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Wanderers
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Wanderers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WanderersDDLLD
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
CerritoDDWLL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
WanderersCerrito
0.0Attack16.7
33.3Defence50.0
16.7Form50.0
21.0Power42.7
1.22xG1.28