Walter Ferrettivs
Real Estelí
COMPLETEDNicaragua · Primera Division · 10/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Estelí · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Walter Ferretti 3-1 Real Estelí
Original prediction
Real Estelí
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 October 2026 at 14:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.31 | 21.0% | 18.4% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.3% | 21.1% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 54.6% | 60.5% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Real Estelí
Probability
60.5%
Model confidence
60.5%
Real Estelí has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00