Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jalapa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Matagalpa 0-1 Jalapa, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 28 October 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 35.7% | 27.3% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.3% | 29.2% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 36.0% | 43.5% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Projected Score
Matagalpa 0–1 Jalapa
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Jalapa
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Jalapa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MatagalpaDLLLL
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
JalapaWWDLD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MatagalpaJalapa
17.9Attack28.6
25.6Defence59.5
25.6Form33.3
27.6Power42.2
0.67xG1.21