Volga Ulyanovskvs
Spartak Kostroma
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 9/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Kostroma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Volga Ulyanovsk 0-1 Spartak Kostroma
Original prediction
Spartak Kostroma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 32.4% | 22.6% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 30.2% | 26.1% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 37.4% | 51.3% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Kostroma
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Spartak Kostroma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60