Volga Ulyanovskvs
Arsenal Tula
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 9/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Volga Ulyanovsk · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Volga Ulyanovsk 3-0 Arsenal Tula
Original prediction
Volga Ulyanovsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 38.6% | 40.1% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.8% | 27.5% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.6% | 32.4% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Volga Ulyanovsk
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Volga Ulyanovsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40