Vitória SCvs
Nacional
SCHEDULEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 8/23/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vitória SC · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Guimaraes are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Nacional are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and nacional hold a 16.8-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 40.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely result in the Primeira Liga, favouring Guimaraes with 14.1% confidence, a 43% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Vitória SC
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
14.1%
Vitória SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20