Vitória SCvs
Moreirense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 9/20/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vitória SC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vitória SC 1-1 Moreirense
Original prediction
Vitória SC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 64.8% | 49.6% | -15.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 22.2% | 25.6% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 7.23 | 13.0% | 24.8% | 11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Vitória SC
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
49.6%
Vitória SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20