Vitória SCvs
Maritimo
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 10/23/2026, 7:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vitória SC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vitória SC 5-0 Maritimo
Original prediction
Vitória SC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 60.5% | 43.1% | -17.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 23.5% | 28.5% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 5.85 | 16.1% | 28.5% | 12.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Vitória SC
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Vitória SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00