Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Vitoria 0-0 Gremio, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Vitoria 1-0 Gremio
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 44.6% | 35.2% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 28.7% | 29.1% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.53 | 26.7% | 35.6% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Projected Score
Vitoria 0–0 Gremio
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
29.1%
Model confidence
35.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VitoriaLLLLW
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
GremioWWDLL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
VitoriaGremio
32.0Attack37.5
50.7Defence55.6
38.7Form38.9
42.3Power46.2
0.91xG1.02