Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vitoria 1-3 Cruzeiro
Original prediction
Cruzeiro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 31.8% | 29.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.2% | 26.4% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 40.0% | 43.6% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VitoriaDWLLL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CruzeiroLWLLD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
VitoriaCruzeiro
33.3Attack48.1
51.9Defence51.9
40.7Form51.9
43.8Power52.5
1.00xG1.30