Vitoriavs
Chapecoense-sc
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vitoria · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vitoria 4-0 Chapecoense-sc
Original prediction
Vitoria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 61.9% | 51.7% | -10.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.13 | 22.8% | 25.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 6.13 | 15.4% | 23.2% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Vitoria
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Vitoria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VitoriaLDWLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Chapecoense-scDDLWL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
VitoriaChapecoense-sc
33.3Attack35.8
50.0Defence34.6
39.3Form22.2
42.8Power33.7
1.44xG0.95