Vitoriavs
Atletico Paranaense
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/24/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Paranaense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vitoria 1-1 Atletico Paranaense
Original prediction
Atletico Paranaense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 35.7% | 26.5% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 28.5% | 25.6% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 35.8% | 47.9% | 12.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.29 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Paranaense
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Atletico Paranaense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80