Vissel Kobevs
Sagan Tosu
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vissel Kobe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vissel Kobe 1-0 Sagan Tosu
Original prediction
Vissel Kobe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 63.5% | 54.7% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 21.9% | 22.8% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 6.18 | 14.7% | 22.5% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Vissel Kobe
Probability
54.7%
Model confidence
54.7%
Vissel Kobe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40