Goalvio Match Preview
Vissel Kobe hold the clear statistical edge over Sagan Tosu
Vissel Kobe enter this Emperor Cup tie with the strongest outcome profile, holding a 51.72% home-win probability compared with 23.14% for a draw and 25.13% for an away win. The prediction engine also gives Vissel Kobe 2.75 expected goals, while Sagan Tosu are projected for 1.47 expected goals. That attacking outlook is supported by Vissel Kobe’s perfect WWWWW record across their last five matches, during which they scored 10 goals and conceded 3. Sagan Tosu’s last-five record is LWWDW, with 10 goals scored and 4 conceded. The match carries a 72.36% BTTS probability and a 77.81% Over 2.5 probability, pointing toward an active contest rather than a low-event encounter. Vissel Kobe’s power rating is 80.5 against Sagan Tosu’s 54.2, while the Elo figures are 1122 and 1017 respectively. Sagan Tosu’s attacking averages remain a meaningful counterpoint, with 4 goals for and 2.5 goals against per match in the supplied ratings data. Overall, Vissel Kobe are the deserved statistical favourite, but the projected scoring environment leaves room for Sagan Tosu to contribute.
Key edge
The clearest separator is the difference in team strength indicators: Vissel Kobe have an 80.5 power rating and 1122 Elo, compared with Sagan Tosu at 54.2 and 1017. The expected-goals projection also favours Vissel Kobe, at 2.75 against 1.47.
Biggest risk
Vissel Kobe’s advantage is not risk-free because Sagan Tosu’s supplied attacking average is 4 goals for per match, and the away team’s last-five record includes three wins. The 72.36% BTTS probability also indicates that Sagan Tosu have a credible route to scoring, even though the home win remains the highest-probability outcome.
Expected match shape
The match is projected to be open and chance-rich. BTTS is rated at 72.36%, while the Over 2.5 probability is 77.81%. The expected-goals projections support that outlook, with Vissel Kobe at 2.75 and Sagan Tosu at 1.47.
Match finished
- Vissel KobeTimeSagan Tosu
- Full time
- T. IwanamiSubstitution 690+2'
- CaetanoSubstitution 586'
- 78'T. AndoSubstitution 6
- ErikNormal Goal78'
- 77'R. MorishitaSubstitution 5
- 71'Y. NaraharaSubstitution 4
- Jean PatricSubstitution 471'
- 65'K. JojoSubstitution 3
- 65'N. MatsumotoSubstitution 2
- M. HidakaSubstitution 357'
- Y. IdeguchiYellow Card50'
- M. HidakaYellow Card46'
- 46'H. NakaharaSubstitution 1
- Y. KuwasakiSubstitution 246'
- R. KomatsuSubstitution 146'
- HT
- Y. KuwasakiYellow Card28'