Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vihren · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vihren 2-0 Nesebar
Original prediction
Vihren
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 71.9% | 61.2% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.93 | 18.1% | 20.0% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 8.92 | 10.0% | 18.8% | 8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Vihren
Probability
61.2%
Model confidence
61.2%
Vihren has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VihrenLWWWW
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NesebarWDWLD
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
VihrenNesebar
76.7Attack66.7
63.3Defence50.0
70.0Form56.7
70.3Power56.4
2.48xG1.28