Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fratria · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Fratria 2-0 Montana, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Fratria 1-2 Montana
Original prediction
Fratria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 14:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 65.0% | 74.8% | 9.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 21.7% | 16.5% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 6.75 | 13.3% | 8.7% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.9 pts
Projected Score
Fratria 2–0 Montana
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Fratria
Probability
74.8%
Model confidence
74.8%
Fratria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FratriaLLWWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
MontanaLLWLL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FratriaMontana
47.2Attack41.7
72.2Defence27.8
61.1Form30.6
61.7Power35.1
2.36xG0.59