Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Venezia 0-2 Lazio
Original prediction
Lazio
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.61 | 26.2% | 23.6% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.7% | 25.4% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 47.1% | 51.0% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VeneziaLLLLL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LazioDWWWL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VeneziaLazio
33.3Attack50.0
8.3Defence75.0
0.0Form83.3
19.6Power73.7
0.89xG1.81