Veneziavs
Fiorentina
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie A · 9/11/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Venezia · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina
Original prediction
Venezia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.90 | 32.7% | 38.6% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 28.3% | 27.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 39.1% | 33.9% | -5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Venezia
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Venezia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VeneziaLLLLW
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FiorentinaLLLWD
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
VeneziaFiorentina
22.2Attack11.1
22.2Defence0.0
0.0Form0.0
20.2Power10.3
1.47xG1.20