Venados FCvs
Tepatitlán
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Venados FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Venados FC 5-0 Tepatitlán
Original prediction
Venados FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 61.1% | 68.6% | 7.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.25 | 21.5% | 16.7% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 5.26 | 17.4% | 14.7% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Venados FC
Probability
68.6%
Model confidence
68.6%
Venados FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 16 · avg 2.40/3.20
GF 4 · GA 18 · avg 0.80/3.60