Venados FCvs
Monarcas
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/26/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Venados FC 2-1 Monarcas
Original prediction
Monarcas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 35.7% | 26.7% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.0% | 19.8% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 2.37 | 38.3% | 53.5% | 15.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–37%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 11 · avg 2.80/2.20
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80