Venados FCvs
Leones Negros UDG
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-3 (7%), 1-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Venados FC 1-1 Leones Negros UDG
Original prediction
Leones Negros UDG
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.6% | 36.7% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.3% | 18.9% | -5.3 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 28.2% | 44.4% | 16.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–37%
- 3.1–26%
Predicted outcome
Leones Negros UDG
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80