Venados FCvs
Durango
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/24/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Venados FC · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Venados FC 3-2 Durango
Original prediction
Venados FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 43.8% | 39.0% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.7% | 27.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 28.5% | 33.6% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Venados FC
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Venados FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40