Velesvs
Volga Ulyanovsk
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 10/4/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Veles · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Veles 1-2 Volga Ulyanovsk
Original prediction
Veles
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 01:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 39.9% | 48.9% | 9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 28.1% | 26.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 32.0% | 24.5% | -7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Veles
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Veles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VelesDLLDW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Volga UlyanovskLLDDW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
VelesVolga Ulyanovsk
44.4Attack38.9
61.1Defence50.0
63.9Form30.6
59.1Power41.4
1.52xG0.78