Velesvs
Shinnik Yaroslavl
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Veles · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Veles 0-0 Shinnik Yaroslavl, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Veles 1-1 Shinnik Yaroslavl
Original prediction
Veles
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 39.6% | 37.4% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.9% | 29.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 29.6% | 33.3% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Projected Score
Veles 0–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Veles
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Veles has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VelesWLDLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Shinnik YaroslavlLWDLD
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
VelesShinnik Yaroslavl
45.2Attack43.6
59.5Defence66.7
61.9Form48.7
58.2Power54.3
0.98xG0.95