Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Sochi · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Veles 1-2 FC Sochi
Original prediction
FC Sochi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.55 | 25.9% | 34.8% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 29.0% | 26.4% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 45.1% | 38.8% | -6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
FC Sochi
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
FC Sochi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VelesLDWWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
FC SochiLLWWW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
VelesFC Sochi
46.7Attack60.0
63.3Defence60.0
73.3Form63.3
63.9Power61.7
1.21xG1.19