Vasco DA Gamavs
Cruzeiro
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 8/30/2026, 12:20:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vasco DA Gama 3-1 Cruzeiro
Original prediction
Cruzeiro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 40.5% | 29.0% | -11.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.9% | 25.4% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 3.05 | 30.6% | 45.5% | 15.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20