Vasco DA Gamavs
Coritiba
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 9/19/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vasco DA Gama · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vasco DA Gama 5-0 Coritiba
Original prediction
Vasco DA Gama
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 63.7% | 39.2% | -24.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 22.4% | 24.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 6.74 | 13.9% | 36.3% | 22.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Vasco DA Gama
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Vasco DA Gama has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80