Varnsdorfvs
Jablonec II
COMPLETEDCzech-Republic · 3. liga - CFL B · 9/20/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Varnsdorf · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Varnsdorf 0-2 Jablonec II
Original prediction
Varnsdorf
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.0% | 41.9% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.6% | 25.8% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.68 | 24.4% | 32.3% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Varnsdorf
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Varnsdorf has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80