Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Van · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Van 2-1 Gandzasar
Original prediction
Van
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 17:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 50.4% | 42.4% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.4% | 26.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.59 | 25.1% | 31.6% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Van
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Van has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VanWLWLW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GandzasarLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 12 · avg 0.20/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
VanGandzasar
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
2.01xG1.71