Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ural · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ural 1-0 Veles, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ural 1-2 Veles
Original prediction
Ural
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 64.8% | 56.6% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.23 | 21.8% | 25.5% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 6.86 | 13.4% | 17.8% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Projected Score
Ural 1–0 Veles
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Ural
Probability
56.6%
Model confidence
56.6%
Ural has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UralWWDLW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
VelesLDLLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
UralVeles
55.6Attack43.6
83.3Defence59.0
69.4Form59.0
69.8Power56.5
1.51xG0.56