UNAN Managuavs
Real Estelí
COMPLETEDNicaragua · Primera Division · 10/8/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Estelí · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: UNAN Managua 0-0 Real Estelí, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
UNAN Managua 1-0 Real Estelí
Original prediction
Real Estelí
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.30 | 17.1% | 25.3% | 8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.4% | 29.3% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 1.55 | 58.4% | 45.4% | -13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.1 pts
Projected Score
UNAN Managua 0–0 Real Estelí
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Real Estelí
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Real Estelí has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00