Ukrainevs
Northern Ireland
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ukraine · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ukraine 0-3 Northern Ireland
Original prediction
Ukraine
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 47.4% | 40.1% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 30.3% | 30.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.24 | 22.2% | 29.7% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Ukraine
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Ukraine has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80