Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Udinese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Udinese 0-3 Lecce
Original prediction
Udinese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 51.3% | 48.0% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 26.9% | 24.5% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 4.33 | 21.9% | 27.5% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Udinese
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Udinese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UdineseLDLLL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
LecceLLWLL
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
UdineseLecce
50.0Attack33.3
27.8Defence33.3
22.2Form33.3
36.4Power35.8
1.83xG1.33