Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Udinese 1-2 Lazio
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 34.3% | 36.3% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 31.1% | 29.2% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 34.6% | 34.5% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
29.2%
Model confidence
36.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UdineseWWDWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LazioWWLWW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
UdineseLazio
66.7Attack33.3
50.0Defence100.0
66.7Form100.0
64.8Power83.3
1.29xG1.21