Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cagliari · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Udinese 0-1 Cagliari
Original prediction
Cagliari
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 42.4% | 35.5% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 29.2% | 27.2% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 28.4% | 37.3% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Cagliari
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Cagliari has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UdineseLLWWD
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
CagliariWWLLW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
UdineseCagliari
66.7Attack33.3
16.7Defence83.3
33.3Form75.0
41.9Power67.4
1.26xG1.47