Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AC Milan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Udinese 0-2 AC Milan
Original prediction
AC Milan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.44 | 21.4% | 16.9% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 26.3% | 20.4% | -5.9 pts |
| Away | 1.82 | 52.3% | 62.7% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
AC Milan
Probability
62.7%
Model confidence
62.7%
AC Milan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UdineseLLDLL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AC MilanLWWDW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
UdineseAC Milan
42.9Attack66.7
23.8Defence66.7
19.0Form71.4
31.9Power69.8
0.95xG2.52