UCV Moqueguavs
Alianza Atletico
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 8/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza Atletico · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: UCV Moquegua 0-0 Alianza Atletico, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
UCV Moquegua 1-4 Alianza Atletico
Original prediction
Alianza Atletico
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.53 | 36.4% | 31.4% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 30.1% | 30.4% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 33.5% | 38.2% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Projected Score
UCV Moquegua 0–0 Alianza Atletico
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Alianza Atletico
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Alianza Atletico has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20